The White House on Saturday issued a key clarification on President Donald Trump’s latest visa policy, stating that the new $100,000 H-1B fee will be a “one-time” payment, applicable only to new applicants. The order, which upended the global tech industry, came into effect at midnight on Sunday (September 21). However, petitions filed before the proclamation date will not be impacted.
While the clarification offered some relief to existing applicants, industry experts say the steep fee will weigh heavily on companies dependent on high-skilled foreign talent. The move has reignited debates around access, affordability, and fairness in the US immigration system.
Akshat Shrivastava, CEO of the Wisdom Hatch Fund, in his LinkedIn post, said the new H-1B visa fee is expected to trigger several immediate shifts in the global talent landscape.
He said that more US workers are likely to be hired, while many Indian professionals may be relocated back to India, or to alternative hubs like the UAE.
Shrivastava warned that other countries with far-right-leaning immigration policies could adopt similar measures, making it harder for Indians to migrate abroad and potentially fueling a rise in anti-India sentiments worldwide. Simultaneously, the reverse flow of talent to India could cause a spike in domestic competition, resulting in a hit to salaries here.
This scenario reminds one of a line from Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman: “You can’t eat the orange and throw the peel away—a man is not a piece of fruit.” Many in the tech community see the sudden imposition of such fees as reducing skilled workers to commodities in a transactional system.
Andrew Ng, founder, DeepLearning.AI voiced concern on LinkedIn: “America should be working to attract more skilled talent, not create uncertainty that turns them away.”
Short-Term Disruption, Long-Term Repercussions
In the short term, the reverse flow of talent to India could create an oversupply in the domestic market, intensifying competition and driving down salaries.
Shrivastava also said that profit margins are likely to shrink, new market access will be challenging, and IT exports could slow—hurting both India and the US, though disproportionately in India’s case.
Yet, this shock might also trigger a much-needed reinvention of India’s IT industry. Companies may pivot from labour arbitrage to SaaS, vertical AI, and stronger product innovation, with some doubling down on R&D.
“The next 3–5 years would prove pivotal for our country: either India innovates dramatically to move beyond a domestic consumption model of low-margin business and weak exports, or risks falling massively behind the global curve,” Shrivastava added.
GCCs Emerge as a Bright Spot
While the visa hike is seen as a deterrent for mobility into the US, some believe it opens a historic opportunity for India’s services and GCC ecosystem.
In this regard, Alouk Kumar, CEO of Inductus Limited, told AIM: “This policy shift will encourage US corporations to bring work to India rather than moving talent abroad. For India, this could actually mean more jobs, more investment, and more GCCs.”
India already hosts 1,800 GCCs employing nearly two million people. Major US corporations, including Texas Instruments, American Express, Microsoft, Google, JPMorgan, Walmart, Meta, and Ford operate large GCC centres in the country. Kumar predicts this wave will now extend to mid-sized companies: “Inductus projects 500+ new GCCs in the next five years, creating 400,000 additional jobs in both metro and Tier-II cities, boosting India’s services exports, which already stood at $350 billion in FY24 (as per the RBI Data).”
However, Kamal Karanth, cofounder Xpheno, said that “the broader policy environment, including potential moves like the proposed HIRE Act or tariffs on outsourced services, could eventually extend to GCC operations as well.”
The Indian IT and services sector already commands over 60% of global offshored services and generated $350 billion in exports in FY24. With US visa costs rising, this figure is expected to climb as corporations shift delivery to India.
Kumar noted that, “Where the US sees restrictions, India sees opportunities. This policy shift will not just redirect investment but reshape global delivery models, with India at the centre of this transformation.”
GCC Momentum Accelerates
Karanth believes the industry has been preparing for this moment: “The proposed hike in H1B visa fees is not a surprise, and IT services companies have been preparing for such developments. Over the last six months, many of them have either nominated or hired new GCC heads to capitalise on the GCC route for business.”
He said that while higher visa costs could slow down onsite hiring, it will only accelerate offshoring momentum: “We expect MNCs to increase their reliance on GCCs and IT services firms in India, which remain a cost-effective option even after factoring in a 25% cess. In the near term, IT services companies may become more aggressive in offering GCC-specific services, and the increased supply of talent could also lead to softer pricing for GCC staffing.”
A Pivotal Moment
Kapil Joshi, CEO, Quess IT Staffing, told AIM that GCCs, which employ nearly 2 million people in India and contribute over $46 billion to exports, could also experience shifts in how they deploy talent. For students, the increase in visa costs is another barrier in an already uncertain path to studying and working in the US.
Historically, Indian students have pursued US education not only for academic excellence, but also for career opportunities tied to H-1B work permits. With rising costs and tighter compliance, many of these students may now prefer to pursue higher education within India, providing a unique opportunity to strengthen domestic universities, research programs, and industry-academia collaborations.
Within this challenge lies a strategic advantage for India. As the cost of sending talent abroad rises, India’s attractiveness as a hub for innovation strengthens. “Multinational corporations may expand their GCCs in India rather than shoulder higher visa costs overseas. Startups stand to benefit from a larger pool of high-skilled talent choosing to remain in India, accelerating the growth of deep-tech, AI, and SaaS ventures,” Joshi added.
He said that policy reforms are equally vital. Simplifying regulations, enhancing the ease of doing business, and introducing a single-window clearance system for startups, GCCs, and research organisations will accelerate investment and innovation.
Incentivising GCC expansion through tax benefits and infrastructure support, supporting startups with access to capital and incubation, and fostering public-private partnerships in research will help India absorb the shock of changing US visa policies while strengthening its own domestic ecosystem.
“The H-1B visa fee hike is more than a policy change in Washington—it is a wake-up call for New Delhi,” Joshi added.
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